In these days of uncertainty and crises, I am quite worried about the future of my grandchildren. Not one day goes by without bad news on the economy, the ecology, or the social scene. It seems as if everything is having a breakdown: the problems from climate change keep worsening day by day; poverty and epidemics are rampant in the poorest countries, where thousands of children die each day for lack of water, food or medicine; and in the wealthy countries, millions of people are losing their jobs, their homes, their way of living.
Trying to make sense of all this is not easy. I often have the ugly feeling no one really knows what is happening. I’ve found that taking a systems thinking approach helps me to make some sense. This is a complex matter, let me share some basic concepts.
A system is a group of interacting, interrelated and interdependent components that form a complex and unified whole. Systems are everywhere -the respiratory system in our body, the banking system, a forest ecosystem, and a health care system. There are many ecological (ecosystems), economic, and social systems. Many of these systems have very close interrelationships and have an effect on each other in many ways. At times this effect is positive, and at other times negative.
All systems have a natural adaptive cycle with 3 main phases: growth, collapse, regeneration, and back to growth. Looking at the way a forest works, we can see an example of the adaptive cycle concept: it stays in a growth phase for many years, then for natural causes reaches its limit (i.e.: a fire, a pine beetle outbreak), collapses, regenerates itself and starts a new cycle.
At the same time that many systems are interdependent and working together, no adaptive cycle exists in isolation. For instance, in his book, The Upside of Down, Thomas Homer-Dixon says, “above the forest's cycle is the larger and slower-moving cycle of the regional ecosystem, and above that, in turn, is the even slower cycle of global biogeochemical processes, where planetary flows of materials and elements-like carbon-can be measured in time spans of years, decades, or even millennia. Below the forest's adaptive cycle, on the other hand, are the smaller and faster cycles of sub-ecosystems that encompass, for instance, particular hillsides or streams.”
What seems to be happening now is that many systems are at the end of their growth phase, almost at the same time, and in many cases we are forcing to artificially over-extend their growth phase. For instance, with the attitude of business-as-usual and the economic bailouts we are trying to extend the growth phase for some systems that are at the end of that phase. By doing this, these systems are getting more complex and highly vulnerable, and no matter what, these systems will eventually collapse in a major breakdown.
Now, when several interconnected systems are at the end of their growth phase at the same time, the overall vulnerability level is very high and the risk of a deep collapse, or synchronous failure, is extreme. A few of the systems with a high vulnerability level are the financial system, the global food system, many ecosystems, the housing system. Several authors have suggested that many of these signs of a potential global collapse are similar to what happened during the collapse of the Roman, the Mayan, the Easter Island civilizations.
The bottom line is that we are facing dramatic system changes, in the economic, social and ecological areas, and we better accept this fact and be ready for them.
Adopting an attitude of resiliency and building resilience is a way that will help us in this transition.
Many systems are currently in a high level of vulnerability. A system is vulnerable to the extent that it is not resilient.
We can say that vulnerability and resilience are two sides of the same coin. We have the opportunity to build resilience in those systems critical to our well being; like food, water, and energy systems. ”
My old Webster’s dictionary defines resilience as “the ability to recover rapidly, as from misfortune: buoyancy.
In an ecological context, resilience is defined as “the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still retain its basic function and structure.”
The Community Resilience Project Team says, a resilient community “intentionally develop personal and collective capacity of its citizens and institutions to respond to and influence the course of social and economic change.”
I personally like the last definition, because it not only involves all members in a community, but it also says we can influence the course of the change. As Richard Heinberg says “it’s no longer about saving the planet but rather, cooperating with the changes the planet is forcing upon us.”
Building resilience is key to avoiding the synchronous failure. And by building resilience in our systems, the collapse phase may be less violent and disruptive.
Resilience is not about staying the same, nor is it about preventing change. It is about increasing our capacity to change and adapt.
A shorter definition I like says resilience refers to a capacity for continuous reconstruction.
In practical terms, building resilience will mean actions like:
- Working on localization efforts in our communities
- Working on local foods programs via small-scale agricultural systems that build on the knowledge of farmers and local communities
- Curtailing all our consumerism
- Reducing the size of our families
- Having a diversity of land use: farms, community gardens, aquaculture, forests, and orchards
- Promoting local industries
- Supporting the concepts of sharing goods and services, co-ops, collective industries, trading
- Investing in off-the-grid, community-owned renewable energy systems
- Relearning old skills: repair things; raising livestock; cheese making; wild food and medicines
- Working together for common community causes, without being afraid of making mistakes
- Thinking in opportunities and solutions, instead of problems
- Stop whining and take action
Let us accept that the Era of Exuberance and Procrastination is over, and we are in the beginning of the Era of Consequences.
The future of my grandkids looks gloomy, but reason tells me we can still turn those consequences into opportunities for making that transition into something better. Let us start working, today, in building resilience in our systems.
To learn more about Resilience, check these resources:
Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by C.S. Holling.
The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization by Thomas Homer-Dixon.
Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World by Brian Walker.
The Transition Handbook: From oil dependency to local resilience by Rob Hopkins.
Ecology and Society magazine. They offer many free online articles. Check their website at www.ecologyandsociety.org
Resilience Alliance. Probably the most comprehensive site on the subject. Check their website at www.resalliance.org/1.php
